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Published Sep 02, 21
4 min read

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From the viewpoint of the country as a whole, the total trading volume was higher in the second period by a factor of Rs. 100 crore per day. The NSE trades on all weekdays, and this helps generate liquidity on many days for which the BSE is closed. On the BSE, liquidity has been enhanced at the security level, especially for smaller, thinly traded stocks.

Market efficiency is the simple idea that prices are not forecastable, because if they were, then thousands of profit-seekers would latch onto, and thus eliminate the forecastability. The small degree of forecastability that is observed in prices is caused by the cost of execution -- a combination of brokerage fees, and the bid-ask spread.



Competition between the BSE and the NSE has led to a sharp drop in brokerage fees, and the afore-mentioned improvements in liquidity have led to tighter spreads. Hence we would expect enhanced market efficiency, which does indeed prove to be the case. The degree of forecastability of prices is smaller today than what it used to be prior to BOLT and the NSE.

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At first sight, the variance of BSE daily returns has dropped sharply, but this primarily reflects the new method used to calculate closing prices. Earlier, the closing price was the price seen on the last transaction. Under BOLT, the closing price is the average of the last 20 market lots.

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When a stock trades on the NSE, this has a slight negative impact on the BSE volatility of that stock. This increase in volatility is not cause for alarm. Small increases in volatility are known to accompany automation the world over, and are consistent with enhanced market efficiency. Perhaps prices earlier were more sluggish in reacting to information; higher market efficiency hence implies higher volatility.

There are numerous allegations that the high-price and low-price reported by the BSE used to be artificially exaggerated. Are high and low prices reported under BOLT more accurate? Based on economic theory, it is known that the high-low spread is proportional to volatility. In our examination of volatility, we know that volatility is slightly higher in period 2 as compared with period 1.

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Instead, we find that the high-low spread has dropped sharply in period 2 as compared with period 1. This is consistent with the view that the high and low prices used to be exaggerated prior to BOLT, and the data released today is more accurate. The full story of the BSE and the NSE has not yet played out, and there is every reason to expect that the quality of India's equity market will substantially improve in the coming few years.

This experience also hints at the opportunity available for improving the quality of the debt, commodity and foreign exchange markets.

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Futures markets have been described as continuous auction markets and as clearing houses for the latest information about supply and demand. They are the meeting places of buyers and sellers of an ever-expanding list of commodities that today includes agricultural products, metals, petroleum, financial instruments, foreign currencies and stock indexes.

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Notwithstanding the rapid growth and diversification of futures markets, their primary purpose remains the same as it has been for nearly a century and a half, to provide an efficient and effective mechanism for the management of price risks. By buying or selling futures contracts--contracts that establish a price level now for items to be delivered later--individuals and businesses seek to achieve what amounts to insurance against adverse price changes.

Volume has increased from 14 million futures contracts traded in 1970 to 179 million futures and options on futures contracts traded in 1985. Other futures market participants are speculative investors who accept the risks that hedgers wish to avoid. Most speculators have no intention of making or taking delivery of the commodity but, rather, seek to profit from a change in the price.

There are also a number of ways in which futures can be used in combination with stocks, bonds and other investments. Speculation in futures contracts, however, is clearly not appropriate for everyone. Just as it is possible to realize substantial profits in a short period of time, it is also possible to incur substantial losses in a short period of time.

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Only a relatively small amount of money is required to control assets having a much greater value. As we will discuss and illustrate, the leverage of futures trading can work for you when prices move in the direction you anticipate or against you when prices move in the opposite direction.

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